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The Composed Market / The void leg
One leg never happens, and the arithmetic of the repair

What happens to a combination when one of its legs is void

A leg can fail to happen for reasons that are nobody's fault: a player does not start, a market is settled on a correction, an event is abandoned. The combination is then repaired, and the repair is where a reader is most likely to be paid a different number from the one they expect.

Desk spec
four legs, multiplied
13.44
four legs, composed
10.80
the void leg
2.40
the repair error
6.7%
the composed priceThe number returned for a set of outcomes the customer named. It is not the product of the legs: on the samples 5.60 multiplies and 4.80 is offered, because the legs happen together more often than independence implies.
the requestA customer asking an operator to invent a market. 500 arrived in the sample month, 218 produced a price, 131 could not be priced at all, and the median answer took 3 hours 40 minutes.
the void legA leg that never happens, repaired by re-pricing the combination from its remaining legs. Dividing the price by the void leg gives 4.50 where the real three-leg price is 4.80 - a 6.7% error.
Direct answer

When a leg of a composed bet is void, the combination is re-priced from its remaining legs rather than divided by the void leg's price. Sample D shows the difference: a 10.80 combination divided by a void leg of 2.40 gives 4.50, while the real three-leg combination prices at 4.80 - a 6.7% gap, worth 3.00 on a 10.00 stake, and 9 of 40 terms pages state the rule.

Why dividing is the natural mistake

The arithmetic of a product is reversible: if 5.60 was reached by multiplying 1.60, 1.75 and 2.00, then removing one leg is attained by dividing. That works for a printed accumulator, where the price is exactly the product. It fails for a composed market, because the composed price was never the product. Removing a leg removes its contribution to the product, but the remaining legs still have the correlation between them, and the correlation has to be re-estimated for the smaller set rather than inferred from the larger one.

What the samples show

Sample D - a four-leg combination with one leg voided
FigurePriceReturn on 10.00How it was produced
The four legs multiplied13.44134.401.60 x 1.75 x 2.00 x 2.40
The combination as composed10.80108.00The model's joint chance of all four
The repair by division4.5045.0010.80 divided by the void leg, 2.40
The repair by re-pricing4.8048.00The real three-leg combination price
What the two repairs differ by0.303.006.7% of the divided figure
sample D - the void leg, repaired two ways legs before the void 1.60 x 1.75 x 2.00 x 2.40 = 13.44 (product) composed price of the four = 10.80 the void leg = 2.40 repair 1, by division 10.80 / 2.40 = 4.50 repair 2, by re-pricing the three remaining legs = 4.80 difference 4.80 - 4.50 = 0.30 as a share of the divided figure 0.30 / 4.50 = 6.7% on a 10.00 stake 48.00 against 45.00 = 3.00 the divided figure is wrong because the correlation between the remaining three legs does not disappear with the void leg: their joint chance is 20.83%, not the 22.22% that 1 / 4.50 would imply.
sample F - what the record says about void legs of 40 invented terms pages read: state that a void leg is re-priced rather than removed = 9 -> 22.5% state that the void leg is divided out of the price = 0 -> 0.0% state what happens if the void leg is the largest leg = 2 -> 5.0% state whether the combination survives a void leg at all = 5 -> 12.5% so on the samples, four in five pages leave the reader to discover the repair from the amount that arrives.

When the repair changes the bet

Two edge cases are worth knowing about before they happen. If the void leg is the one the customer cared about - the named player's shots, the goals market - the combination that survives is not the bet they placed, and a reader who would not have made the smaller bet may prefer the whole stake returned. And if several legs of one combination are settled on the same corrected statistic, a single correction can void more than one leg, which changes the remaining set twice. Neither case is covered by the division method at all.

Five things to check before a void leg happens
  • Whether the terms state that the combination is re-priced from its remaining legs, or say nothing.
  • Whether the re-pricing uses the price that existed before the void or the model as it stands after.
  • Whether a combination with one leg left is still a combination or becomes a single bet at that leg's price.
  • Whether the void leg's stake is returned in cash, retained in the combination, or simply removed.
  • Whether a correction to a statistic can void more than one leg of the same combination at once.

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